Professional
Added to YB: 2024-05-22
Pitch date: 2024-05-16
MOS [bullish]
The Mosaic Company
-23.66%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients.
Market Cap
$7.2B
Pitch Price
$28.74
Price Target
40.00 (+82%)
Dividend
3.86%
EV/EBITDA
5.68
P/E
160.69
EV/Sales
1.04
Sector
Chemicals
Category
value
The Mosaic Company: Potash: We See Prices Rising After 2024 and View Mosaic and Nutrien as Undervalued
MOS: Potash prices fell 75% from 2022 high, now $305/ton, below long-term marginal cost. Prices to stay low in '24, rise in '25 on strong demand & hit $325/ton LT forecast even with new BHP mine. MOS & NTR ~60% & ~45% below highs, both 4-star. K3 mine cutting costs, specialty phosphates like MicroEssentials a focus. Risks: OCP expansion, BHP's Jansen mine, prices still above costs. No-moat. FVE: $40, 7.5x EV/EBITDA. Upside $75, downside $20. High uncertainty. Std capital allocation.
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