Alignment Healthcare: Everyone Sold the Same Slide

ALHC: Alignment Healthcare’s collapse to $7.99 leaves a ~$1B enterprise value, about 0.2x sales, for a Medicare Advantage plan growing revenue 32% and membership 31%, while management held its $145–163M EBITDA guide despite cost pressure it calls temporary. Buy trading size for a rebound toward $9.20, then $10.40, but wait for mid-October star ratings before full sizing: losing 4-star status, another prior-period development charge or an October guidance cut would break the thesis, while a restatement would keep the multiple compressed.

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