Added to YB: 2026-09-24
Pitch date: 2026-09-21
GEO [bearish]
The GEO Group, Inc.
+0.26%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
The GEO Group, Inc. a diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
Market Cap
$3.9B
Pitch Price
$30.70
Price Target
15.10 (-49%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
10.04
P/E
14.10
EV/Sales
1.93
Sector
Commercial Services and Supplies
Category
special_situation
Aggressive Portfolio Trades: Short GEO
GEO (short): GEO trades at 25x forward earnings despite depending on politically vulnerable ICE funding and a single government customer. Recent enforcement drove major contracts and higher profits, but betting markets put Democratic House-control odds above 90%; a takeover could block further funding growth and force estimates lower. A half-sized short limits small-cap squeeze risk, with 50% downside expected over the next year and by January 2029 at the latest.
Read full article (4 min)