Added to YB: 2026-08-27
Pitch date: 2026-08-25
SPCX [bullish]
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
+1.85%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, Canada, and internationally.
Market Cap
$1.8T
Pitch Price
$137.00
Price Target
916.53 (+564%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
257.97
P/E
-59.43
EV/Sales
76.90
Sector
Diversified Telecommunication Services
Category
growth
The SpaceX Monopoly: Launch, Starlink, and the AI Wars ($SPCX)
SPCX: Long SPCX at $135 (post-Jun'26 IPO, largest ever; ~$2.1T mkt cap). Three segments: Space ($962M Q2 rev, net loss on Starship R&D), Starlink (12M subs, ~$66 ARPU, $4.3B rev/$1.7B op inc — most profitable), AI (post-xAI merger, $2.6B rev but $15.8B AI capex). Q2'26: rev $7.81B (+92% y/y, beat), adj EBITDA $3.54B (+191%), net loss narrowed to $541M; ~$100B cash/$39.4B debt. Author 5yr DCF (15% hurdle): base $141.98 IV, PT $285.58 (16% CAGR) — slightly undervalued; bull $916.53 (47% CAGR, 20% margin/60x); bear $48.35 IV, price $97.25 (-6% CAGR). Thesis hinges on Musk timelines/Starship cadence (1 flight/day by mid-'27). Risks: $25B 1H FCF burn from AI capex; FAA/litigation delays; Starmind feasibility (1M sats vs ~100k LEO ceiling, Kessler); Starlink saturation/ARPU decline, Kuiper/Blue Origin/ULA competition.
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