The Drone Warfare Portfolio - Smart Shooter Ltd.

SMSH.TA: US military designated SMASH-maker sole-source w/ no substitute (USAF Spangdahlem notice; all four branches now buying; JIATF-401 emergency-supplier status). Moat = closed-loop computer-controlled trigger release, ~95% NATO hit prob (static), decade of IDF combat-tuned data, TAK integration lock-in; cost edge decisive — ~$0.40/round vs $50-250k interceptors (Anduril/Fortem). At inflection: backlog $49M (+67% YoY), order intake +~400% YoY, moving from $1-3M pilots to $10-20M/1-2k-unit deals. FY25 rev $36.8M (+50%), 54% GM, $6M NI, $81.7M cash/zero debt. Author model: '26 rev ~$70M (+90%), EBIT ~$22M; '27 $100M, EBIT ~$35M. Valuation ~4.3x '26 / 3.0x '27 EV/Sales, 13.6x/8.7x EV/EBIT, 22x/14x P/E — cheap vs Israeli comps at 30-41x fwd EV/EBITDA. Free options: Hopper turret line (mgmt sees ≥50% of rev medium-term; India ordered) + future ~100%-GM software/SaaS upsell on installed base — neither in numbers. Risk: order acceleration may be a couple good quarters vs start of broad NATO cycle; operating-leverage timing.

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