Added to YB: 2026-08-27
Pitch date: 2026-08-25
BDSX [bullish]
Biodesix, Inc.
+7.97%
current return
Author Info
Investing w/ Martin is a former poker pro. Now I split my time between programming and investing. Switched from indexing to active mid-2022. Beat SPY every year since. Returned 30% in 2023, 71% in 2024, and ~35% YTD. I run an 85% net long/short book atm. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Biodesix, Inc. operates as a diagnostic solutions company. The company offers blood-based lung tests, including Nodify XL2 and Nodify CDT tests markets as Nodify Lung Nodule Risk Assessment testing to assess the risk of lung cancer and help in identifying the appropriate treatment pathway and help physicians in reclassifying risk of malignancy in patients with suspicious lung nodules.
Market Cap
$267.9M
Pitch Price
$28.34
Price Target
78.00
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
-24.38
P/E
-8.12
EV/Sales
3.01
Sector
Health Care Providers and Services
Category
special_situation
The case for BDSX / Biodesix
BDSX: Long BDSX, 10%. Thesis: cheapest name in hot bio-diagnostics theme — lung cancer dx trading ~2.6x EV/2026E rev (~$111m guide midpoint) vs 25-35% growth, 82% GM; Nodify blood test rules CT-detected lung nodules up/down, strong PMF, ASP ~$1,215 (Natera-like). Central bet: acquisition, most likely Abbott via Exact Sciences — EXAS published lung-nodule deck but never commercialized; BDSX fills the hole, complementary channels (EXAS primary-care/Cologuard vs BDSX pulmonologist specialists). Cheap even at EXAS's own ~7x LTM/6x fwd multiple → 2.6-2.85x ROI. Signals: 20%+ holder Jack Schuler (built Abbott diagnostics) still buying Aug 11; CEO Hutton ex-Medtronic, 15.6% rev CAGR since 2020. Author frames as +EV poker call — acquisition need only hit ~50% over ~18mo to beat SPY handily even if bankrupt otherwise. Risks: standalone BDSX moves into competitive genetic testing; 12%+ debt; deal is a possibility not fact (author's GitLab/Anthropic call was early/wrong).
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