Added to YB: 2026-08-26
Pitch date: 2026-08-24
TNIE.F [bullish]
tonies SE
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally.
Market Cap
EUR 1.4B
Pitch Price
N/A
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
34.17
P/E
-100.97
EV/Sales
1.97
Sector
Leisure Products
Category
growth
Tonies - great product, great business, great stock
TNIE.F: Market treats Tonies as an expensive growth name (35x trailing/23x fwd EV/EBITDA), but author argues it's a mispriced 'razor-and-blade / quasi-bank' model: each box sold drives ~20 figurine purchases over 4.5yrs, and >€1.5bn revenue is already locked in from existing cohorts even if zero new boxes sell. ~€60/box/yr revenue is remarkably stable. Runway: 13m boxes vs 550m-household TAM; US only 12% penetrated vs ~60% Germany, NA sales up 85% cc in Q2. Mgmt guides €1.4bn 2030 revenue (needs only ~14% box CAGR) and 16-18% EBITDA margins (vs 8% FY25); capex <1% of sales. Base case ~20.5% IRR, driven by EBITDA not multiple (assumes de-rate to 15x by 2030, which author thinks too cheap). Key risks: content-licensing cost inflation (now 11% of rev), and Armira's 27.5% stake in yr 7 could pressure a sale. Under-followed/illiquid OTC.
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