Added to YB: 2026-08-26
Pitch date: 2026-08-23
STZ [bullish]
Constellation Brands, Inc.
-0.93%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.
Market Cap
$23.2B
Pitch Price
$136.28
Price Target
173.00 (+28%)
Dividend
3.04%
EV/EBITDA
9.28
P/E
12.95
EV/Sales
3.74
Sector
Beverages
Category
value
$STZ DCF VALUATION MODEL
STZ (quick overview): DCF pegs intrinsic value at $173 vs ~$136 (author est., ~20% discount; ~8% annual alpha if it closes in 3yrs). Stock down ~50%, deepest drawdown since GFC. Thesis: Modelo/Corona keep growing via premiumization/share gains/Mexican-beer penetration despite structural US beer volume declines (per-capita ~23gal in '24, US production+imports -5.7% YoY in '25). Key assumptions: 2% LT growth, EBITDA margin 37%→39%, WACC 7%, 9.4x exit multiple. Risk: near-term weak—mgmt guides FY27 organic net sales -1% to +1%, and growth must come at competitors' expense as the category shrinks.
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