Theodosian Capital | Stocks Update 21/8/2026 - IR5B – MBO looks to be in real trouble

IR5B.IR (quick overview): MBO in real trouble: ICG's independent directors say early proxy votes suggest the €8.00/share take-private scheme 'will likely fail' at next Friday's EGM, though many holders haven't voted. Shares at €7.00, 12.5% below offer; if deal breaks, directors expect a drop to ≤€6.24 (pre-announcement level), as arb funds exit. H1: revenue +16% to €359.9m (largely fuel/enlarged-fleet cost recovery), operating profit roughly flat at €24.0m, diluted EPS 12.4c vs 11.6c on buybacks; net debt flat at €226.2m. Weaker Q3 car/truck volumes and P&O ending its Dover–Calais space charter with Irish Ferries add near-term headwinds. Author views €8.00 as fair — a level shares never reached pre-bid.

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