Dino Polska H1’2026 Update

DNP.WA (earnings): Dino Polska H1'26: revenue +12.5%, shares +8% on results. Underlying volume strength held up despite Poland's price war and basket deflation—LFL volumes +6% (vs Biedronka +5%), total volumes +16.3%. But LFL sales growth has decelerated as deflation and price competition force lower shelf prices, while margins are squeezed by 12.8% workforce growth against a 14.5% minimum-wage rise and aggressive store openings (380–395 planned this year; ~25-30% of network still immature). Structural concerns: lack of private label and sub-scale vs Biedronka/Lidl limit purchasing power; opaque management/founder. Author sees runway to ~5,700 stores (1.8x current 3,176) but flags cyclically inflated prior margins and models only ~6.6% IRR excl. buybacks/dividends — less attractive than other holdings.

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