Added to YB: 2026-08-05
Pitch date: 2026-08-05
HOG [bullish]
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
+6.13%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
Market Cap
$2.9B
Pitch Price
$26.57
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
2.66%
EV/EBITDA
8.33
P/E
15.87
EV/Sales
0.93
Sector
Automobiles
Category
turnaround
Director buys $1mm at motorcycle turnaround company
HOG: HOG turnaround thesis: after units fell 26% from 2022-26 (rate/demand + self-inflicted mix), business appears to be bottoming—Q1 NA retail +14%, Q2 +3% on lower promos, dealer inventory down 17-22%, mgmt raised guidance and guided 2026 units to 133.5-138.5k (first growth in years). Operating leverage cuts both ways, so stabilization could drive outsized EPS. Trades 10.5x NTM EV/EBITDA (vs 12.2x 5y median), 27% LTM FCF yield, 16.7% shareholder yield, -13.5% shares y/y. Director bought $983K at $24.57 (last close $25.31); industry has heaviest insider buying (50% net vs 35% avg). Third-party pitches see base case low/mid-$30s, upside into $40s. Risk: volatile consumer/macro, no expectation of strong growth—just stabilization.
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