Added to YB: 2026-08-20
Pitch date: 2026-08-17
CAT [neutral]
Caterpillar Inc.
-5.34%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally.
Market Cap
$386.5B
Pitch Price
$862.19
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
0.78%
EV/EBITDA
25.49
P/E
36.24
EV/Sales
5.70
Sector
Machinery
Category
value
The Right Backlog with the Wrong Price: $CAT’s AI Bet Priced for Perfection
CAT (avoid): Record Q with $72B backlog (+92% YoY) on AI data-center power, but at $855 trades 37x trailing/40x normalized EPS ($21-23) vs 18.5x 10yr median. Base IV $625, bear $400 on moratorium/recession risk (75 projects/$130B blocked Q1'26). Buybacks value-destructive above $520. Neg margin of safety.
Read full article (22 min)