Added to YB: 2024-12-23
Pitch date: 2024-12-21
RSKD [bullish]
Riskified Ltd.
Author Info
Clark Square Capital is a former equity analyst and now a full-time investor managing their own capital. Sign up for their newsletter
Company Info
Riskified Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and offers an e-commerce risk intelligent platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas.
Market Cap
$759.1M
Pitch Price
N/A
Price Target
7.50
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
-62.27
P/E
-50.39
EV/Sales
1.52
Sector
Software
Category
value
Quality biz with inflecting margins
RSKD (new position): Israeli fraud-prevention SaaS at $4.64, ~$800M cap/$400M EV, $390M net cash (50% of cap). Thesis: ~1,000bps EBITDA margin expansion to 15% (2026)/20% (2027) via CTB improvement, new products, OPEX leverage; consensus only models 11%. 99% retention, low capex, aggressive buybacks (10-15% shares/yr). Trades 7x 2026/5x 2027 EBITDA. PT $7.50 (1yr, +60%)/$9.40 (2yr, +100%) at 15x; downside $3.40 (-30%). Risks: e-commerce slowdown, Wayfair loss, fraud events, competition (Signifyd/Forter).
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