Added to YB: 2026-08-11
Pitch date: 2026-08-07
RARE [bearish]
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
-3.43%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
Market Cap
$2.5B
Pitch Price
$25.91
Price Target
10.00 (-61%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
-7.12
P/E
-4.43
EV/Sales
4.62
Sector
Biotechnology
Category
special_situation
Ultragenyx: A $RARE Short?
RARE (short): Bear thesis on Ultragenyx: setrusumab (OI) stalled after Phase 3 fracture endpoint miss — UK MHRA/FDA may demand new trials. GTX-102 (Angelman) Aspire readout late-2026 has punitive alpha-split prone to placebo wipeout. Legacy Crysvita/Dojolvi saturating; $436M cash, ~4Q runway, $92M Q2 net loss, high dilution risk, Catalent lawsuit, single-source CMOs. Bear case $10-12/sh floor vs bull $48-52. Beta 2.08, WACC 12.3%. Catalysts: DTX401 PDUFA Aug'26, UX111 Sept'26, Aspire data Sept/Oct'26.
Read full article (7 min)