Added to YB: 2026-01-26
Pitch date: 2026-01-23
MDA.TO [bullish]
MDA Space Ltd.
+50.88%
current return
Author Info
Aurelion Research is a research analyst with a passion for markets, specializing in high‑conviction ideas across shipping, offshore drilling, and thematic equity research. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.
Market Cap
CAD 7.2B
Pitch Price
CAD 36.48
Price Target
78.80 (+47%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
29.62
P/E
65.08
EV/Sales
4.05
Sector
Aerospace and Defense
Category
growth
Aerospace to the Moon? - Thematic Research & Small-Cap Idea
MDA.TO: Canadian space tech co serving gov't & commercial customers in earth observation, robotics, satellite systems. Thesis: 1) LEO mega-constellations driving recurring manufacturing demand vs one-off programs 2) Defense adds stability to dual-use structure 3) High-value payload expertise in digital antenna/radar creates barriers 4) M&A could deepen prime contractor role. 70% commercial/30% gov't revenue mix. Modeling 13% CAGR 2026-31, 18-19% EBITDA margins, FCF inflection as capex normalizes post-manufacturing build. DCF implies $55.5 intrinsic value, 5yr PT $78.8. Trades 14x EV/EBITDA vs 11.8x peer median, justified by superior FCF profile & declining capital intensity. Catalysts: Canada ESA funding increase, counter-space threats driving propulsion demand, SHIELD program credibility. Risks: fixed-price execution, customer concentration, gov't budget sensitivity.
Read full article (14 min)