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Added to YB: 2026-05-13

Pitch date: 2026-05-11

MRLN [neutral]

Merlin, Inc.

-7.88%

current return

Author Info

Shawarma Capital wraps deep research on hardware, semis, defense autonomy, and more, into long-form memos you can actually digest. Sign up for the newsletter.

Company Info

Merlin, Inc. develops AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft in the United States and New Zealand.

Market Cap

$1.1B

Pitch Price

$8.50

Price Target

N/A

Dividend

N/A

EV/EBITDA

-28.91

P/E

-0.10

EV/Sales

202.54

Sector

Aerospace and Defense

Category

growth

Show full summary:
MRLN's $105M Ceiling Is Not the Revenue, It Is the Authorization

MRLN (update): Bear's $105M÷$3M=35 tails math applies only to dev ceiling, not production ceiling set post-CDR. KC-135 (396 tails) separate funding via GE 36mo exclusive ignores bear calc. SOI-2 DO-178C artifacts transfer at kernel. 90.3% SPAC redemption; Baillie Gifford+Alyeska stayed/added. UAE Remah exclusive distribution pre-cert. Q1 5/14 print key for IDIQ drawdown pace, KC-135 NRE status, CDR timeline. Kill criteria: CDR fail, IDIQ term, GE exit, cash crisis—none occurred. Position 41.7% at $6.03 cost vs $8.23 current.

Read full article (14 min)