Added to YB: 2026-05-11
Pitch date: 2026-05-08
HOG [neutral]
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Author Info
The Value Road is a deep value investor that's interested in post bankruptcy, NAV, and undervalued micro and nano-cap stocks. I only invest in companies that have layers of value behind them, usually with little or no debt. Sign up for their newsletter.
Company Info
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
Market Cap
$2.8B
Pitch Price
N/A
Price Target
48.00 (+89%)
Dividend
2.95%
EV/EBITDA
6.39
P/E
13.10
EV/Sales
0.72
Sector
Automobiles
Category
value
Wall Street Still Has the Wrong Enterprise Value on Harley-Davidson
HOG (update): HDMC operating EV ~$1.1B (0.3x EV/Sales, 3.1x 2027E EBITDA) after deconsolidation strips $1.8B HDFS debt. KKR/PIMCO deal cut consolidated debt $7.9B to $2.1B. Mgmt targets $350M+ EBITDA by 2027 (10-12% margin), $220-260M FCF. Floor $23-25/sh (liquidation), base $30-34, bull $40-48 (8x EBITDA). 105M shares post-buyback vs stale 115-120M in models. Risks: Sprint tariff exposure if imported, Q1 OCF -$228M needs reversal, 42.7% tax rate, demographic challenge.
Read full article (14 min)