Added to YB: 2026-04-23
Pitch date: 2026-04-21
DUOL [bullish]
Duolingo, Inc.
+2.81%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Market Cap
$4.9B
Pitch Price
$102.64
Price Target
300.00 (+184%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
23.05
P/E
12.23
EV/Sales
3.74
Sector
Diversified Consumer Services
Category
value
Duolingo (DUOL) Investment Research: Target Price, Full Valuation Analysis & Monte Carlo Simulation
DUOL: Deep dive at historic valuation floor—stock at $104.84 ($3.9B EV, $1B net cash) = 12.9x fwd EBITDA for 85% mkt share, 72.8% gross margin biz. Reverse SOTP: mkt assigns negative $427M to Chess (7M DAUs), Math, Music expansions. Reverse DCF: price only requires 6.4% FCF growth vs 38% historical. Base: $195 (+86%, 20x EBITDA). Bull: $300+ (+186%, 100M DAU goal, Max/Super monetization). Bear floor: $89 (-15%). Catalyst: Q1 ER May 4—CFO hinted bookings above guide; beat breaks stagnation narrative. 95% probability undervalued per Monte Carlo. 12 of 17 analysts Hold/Sell = max pessimism. Risks: DAU growth stalls, App Store fee hikes, AI disrupts learning demand, monetization experiments fail. 4:1 risk/reward.
Read full article (49 min)