Bristlemoon Capital Portfolio Holding: Fair Isaac Corporation

FICO (holding update): Q4 solid but shares -37% on uncertainty around VantageScore competition (bureaus cutting prices, GSE testing). Multiple compressed 50%+ to 25x FY27 (>1 std dev below 10yr avg). Moat intact—FICO Score deeply entrenched in mortgage ecosystem; VantageScore faces adoption barriers (limited history, no securitization pathway, likely MBS discount). Direct Licensing rollout catalyst. Conservative guidance; 40%+ EPS growth next 2yrs on mortgage rebound = $2,400 PT (2.2x upside). 50% upside from multiple normalization alone.

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