Added to YB: 2026-04-13
Pitch date: 2026-04-09
AGI.NS [neutral]
AGI Greenpac Limited
+3.83%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
AGI Greenpac Limited operates as a packaging products company in India and the United Arab Emirates. The company manufactures and markets containers and bottles, food jars, perfumery cosmetics, polyethylene terephthalate bottles, high density polyethylene bottles, polypropylene products, and security caps and closures products for use in beverages, liquor, wine, beer, pharmaceuticals, cosmetic, personal care, alcoholic beverages, liquor, fast-moving consumer goods, dairy, agrochemicals, and hospitality industries.
Market Cap
INR 34.8B
Pitch Price
INR 527.95
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
1.30%
EV/EBITDA
6.18
P/E
10.46
EV/Sales
1.50
Sector
Containers and Packaging
Category
turnaround
AGI Greenpac: When your biggest competitor goes away, margins expand. What happens when they return?
AGI.NS (pass): India's 2nd-largest container glass mfr. OPM expanded 11-12% (FY18-19) to 23-24% (FY24-25), ROCE 3%→20%+, debt halved Rs1,230cr→Rs553cr. Margin expansion driven by: 1) HNGIL (37% industry capacity) insolvency removed competition 2) Soda ash normalization 3) Operational gains. Bear case: HNGIL acquired by INSCO Sept'25, restarting capacity will compress margins; soda ash anti-dumping duties + nat gas supply crunch risk; Rs1,700-1,900cr capex (Gwalior plant, aluminum cans) peaks net debt Rs1,000-1,200cr; working capital likely deteriorates as competition returns. Normalized OPM est 15-18% vs current 23-24%. Peak margins unsustainable; wait for bear case to price in before considering entry.
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