AXON Research Report: Written by an AI Workflow

AXON (deep dive): Dominant public safety platform (85% US CED market, 2M+ officers) w/ hardware-software-data moat. FY25: $2.78B rev (+33.5%), $7.4B bookings (+46%), 125% NRR, but -$276M owner earnings FCF (SBC $634M=23% rev). AI Era Plan $750M bookings (30% penetration→70% target=$240M+ ARR upside). Bull: ARPU $600→$900-1,200, SBC→12% rev, $6B FY28 rev, 28% EBITDA margin=$450 PT. Bear: FCF recovery fails, goodwill impairment ($1.37B), rev recognition weakness, AI commoditizes=$220 PT. At $393 (35x NTM EBITDA), fairly priced; prefer entry $300-330.

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