Added to YB: 2026-04-03
Pitch date: 2026-04-01
SES.TO [bullish]
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp.
+2.96%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. engages in the waste management and energy infrastructure businesses primarily in Canada and the United States.
Market Cap
CAD 4.8B
Pitch Price
CAD 21.27
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
1.83%
EV/EBITDA
12.12
P/E
40.43
EV/Sales
3.91
Sector
Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels
Category
value
Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES.TO)
SES.TO: Western Canada waste infrastructure w/ 70% mkt share in duopoly vs Waste Connections. 80% EBITDA tied to recurring production volumes (not drilling). 34% EBITDA margin, 21% ROIC vs peers at 3-14%. Trading 11.4x EV/EBITDA vs peers 15-17x due to GICS misclassification as energy. Catalysts: GICS reclassification, investor day, potential sale of 67% Energy Infrastructure stake at 10-13x generating C$670M for buybacks (14-18% share reduction). TPG Angelo Gordon owns 16.7%, needs exit. Retired 25% of shares 2024-25. 2026 guide: C$520-550M EBITDA (+4-10% YoY), C$75M growth capex at 20% IRR, 75% contractually backed. DFCF C$273M (C$1.22/share), 12.5% shareholder yield. Debt 2.1x. Risks: env incident destroying permits, anti-trust, WCSB production decline, aranceles on scrap exports, mgmt discipline. Base IRR: 16% 5yr, 13.4% 10yr. Floor: forced sale comp at 7.5x, GFL ES sold at 16.3x, May 2025 SIB undersubscribed at C$14.50.
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