Added to YB: 2026-03-30
Pitch date: 2026-03-20
GEO [bullish]
The GEO Group, Inc.
+0.06%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
Market Cap
$2.3B
Pitch Price
$16.70
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
8.23
P/E
9.62
EV/Sales
1.51
Sector
Commercial Services and Supplies
Category
value
Geo Group: Rehabilitated and Ready to Win
GEO: Down 60% from ATH but deleveraged $780M, now FCF machine at 6x fwd FCF. $123M 2025 levered FCF → $435M by 2027. Largest of 3 cos controlling 96%+ private prison beds, sole ICE e-monitoring provider, 5-15yr contracts w/ ~100% renewal. $460M new contracts since 2025. 6K idle beds = $330M incremental rev. Bull: Trump policy thru 2028, ICE $38B expansion. Risk: Dem win 2028, 54% rev from federal ICE.
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