Deep Dive - Alliance Aviation $AQZ.AX

AQZ.AX: Australian FIFO airline + wet lessor at 0.26x P/B ($0.59 vs $2.22 tangible book). Underwater $QAN.AX wet lease caused massive impairment. Mgmt said 12mo going concern runway, selling hangars for >$60M liquidity, insider buying. Thesis: stock prices imminent B/K but restructure unlikely before $QAN.AX renegotiation. $QAN.AX incentivized to fix deal (small $150-200M cost vs losing regional routes in B/K). Base case: repriced contract + $QAN.AX buys $100-150M fleet at book + rights offering at $1.10 = stock to $1.30-$1.50 (2x+ from here). Zero risk priced in but >50% odds of favorable outcome.

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