Added to YB: 2026-03-16
Pitch date: 2026-01-18
HGV [bearish]
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
+10.49%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States and Europe.
Market Cap
$3.5B
Pitch Price
$45.67
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
11.96
P/E
48.63
EV/Sales
2.39
Sector
Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure
Category
N/A
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. - $HGV (short)
HGV (short): Timeshare operator masquerading as asset-light business. True cash yield 2-5%, not 20%. Adjusted EBITDA double-counts: $1B receivables runoff replacement (from $400M Real Estate profit) sustains $250M Financing profit. Buybacks funded by ABS proceeds, not OCF. 80% sales to existing owners (up from 60%), 1% net owner growth (down from 6-7%), first negative net customer growth Q3'25. Diamond/Bluegreen customers ($85K HHI, 739 FICO, drive-to) won't upgrade to HGV ($150K+ HHI, fly-to Hawaii/Vegas). Mgmt shifted to 'profitable high-default underwriting' model conflicts with HLT brand, creates 5% licensing risk. Receivables pool flat at $3B despite $1.05B originations = running to stand still. Q3 FCF conversion 8% vs guided 65-70%. Catalyst: continued customer acquisition deterioration.
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