Added to YB: 2026-03-03
Pitch date: 2026-02-28
DUOL [neutral]
Duolingo, Inc.
+2.46%
current return
Author Info
Accrued Interest is an TMT Equity Research Specialist. They manage their family office and write about business and investing. Former tv/radio executive. During corporate years, achieved +3,400% TWR in PA from ’16-‘24. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Market Cap
$4.7B
Pitch Price
$98.40
Price Target
71.00 (-30%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
21.98
P/E
11.79
EV/Sales
3.57
Sector
Diversified Consumer Services
Category
growth
Deflating the Duolingo ($DUOL) Owl
DUOL (update): Q4 cratered -25% as predicted. Paid conversion stuck at 9%; mgmt pivoting away from monetization to chase free users, sacrificing margins & profitability. DAU growth decelerating to 20% despite pivot. Bookings growth halved to 10-12% (vs 24% Q4'25). Adj EBITDA margin down to 25% from 29.5%. Still trades 24x 2026 GAAP EPS for stalled mobile game model. See 20-29% downside to $71-$80 (17-19x P/E). Maintaining Underperform.
Read full article (7 min)