Added to YB: 2026-02-25
Pitch date: 2026-02-21
ORC-B.V [bullish]
Orca Energy Group Inc.
+1.78%
current return
Author Info
Case Research is an arbitrations equity analyst who loves: heavy asymmetry, catalysts, and general cinches! Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Orca Energy Group Inc. engages in the exploration, development, production, and supply of petroleum and natural gas to the power and industrial sectors in Tanzania.
Market Cap
CAD 82.9M
Pitch Price
CAD 4.50
Price Target
35.32 (+690%)
Dividend
55.05%
EV/EBITDA
-0.48
P/E
3.90
EV/Sales
-0.41
Sector
Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels
Category
special_situation
Orca Energy (TSXV: ORC.B) (OTCPK: ORXGF) | Equity Research Report
ORC-B.V: Orca initiated 3 ICSID arbitrations vs Tanzania over Songo Songo gas field breaches: forced protected gas price ceiling past expiry (Jul'24), blocked license extension, unpaid royalties. Claim >$1.2B. Using ICSID 57% win rate * 40% avg recovery = $270M expected award vs $71M mkt cap = 280% upside. Legal counsel 67% ICSID win rate, Tanzania 20%. Timeline: ~5yrs to award. Trading 0.28x BV, mkt pricing 7% win probability vs statistical avg.
Read full article (19 min)