Added to YB: 2026-02-25
Pitch date: 2026-02-23
EL [neutral]
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
+1.45%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide.
Market Cap
$40.9B
Pitch Price
$113.64
Price Target
185.00 (+64%)
Dividend
1.24%
EV/EBITDA
15.68
P/E
-224.29
EV/Sales
3.22
Sector
Personal Care Products
Category
turnaround
Estée Lauder Under Pressure
EL (update): Sales -8% in FY25, driven by China weakness & travel retail collapse. Skincare (50% of sales, highest margin) -12%. Swung from $970M operating profit to $785M loss on $1.2B impairment (TOM FORD overpay) + $481M restructuring. $7.3B debt w/ $375M annual interest vs declining earnings is concerning. Generated $670M FCF but inventory issues suggest more promotions ahead. Bull case: cyclical not structural, margins can recover to $3.7B EBITDA by 2035 = $180-185 fair value (11% IRR). Bear case: structural China/retail weakness + margin compression.
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