Added to YB: 2026-02-25
Pitch date: 2025-12-15
NEU [bearish]
NewMarket Corporation
+16.1%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
NewMarket Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of petroleum additives.
Market Cap
$5.7B
Pitch Price
$738.71
Price Target
384.00 (-36%)
Dividend
1.97%
EV/EBITDA
8.85
P/E
13.74
EV/Sales
2.44
Sector
Chemicals
Category
value
NewMarket Corporation - $NEU (short)
NEU (short): Specialty chem co, 100% petroleum additives. Post-COVID supply tightness drove excess profits but now facing 10-20% overcapacity. ~18% of global demand in new capacity coming online, led by aggressive Chinese expansion (Richful adding 750kt/yr, expanding to Middle East). Gross margins historically cycle 23-33% w/ crude. ROICs peaked, now rolling over. China shifted from net importer to exporter, undercutting Western prices (India $3.50/kg vs US $6.50/kg). 23-48% downside at 12-15x normalized $30.50-36.50 EPS (12-14% ROIC vs peak levels).
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