Added to YB: 2025-11-19
Pitch date: 2025-11-17
DUOL [bullish]
Duolingo, Inc.
+10.13%
current return
Author Info
Jaime Bermejo shares investing thoughts and ideas in his newsletter. Sign up for his newsletter.
Company Info
Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Market Cap
$8.4B
Pitch Price
$178.23
Price Target
535.00 (+173%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
54.13
P/E
22.72
EV/Sales
7.69
Sector
Diversified Consumer Services
Category
growth
DUOLINGO: A Mispriced AI Education Engine
DUOL: AI-powered language learning platform trading at ~$7.5B EV (22x FCF, 8x revenue) despite 4x FCF growth in 4 years. Market pricing in zero growth while LTV of current 11.5M subs (~$7B) nearly equals entire EV. Proprietary dataset from 1B+ daily exercises creates AI moat. New verticals (Chess launched in 8mo vs years) plus China expansion provide upside. Strong 4-5x LTV/CAC unit economics justify long-term focus over near-term monetization. AI tutor could tap $200B+ private tutoring market at higher ARPU. Base case: $14-18B valuation by 2028 (100-200% upside) if modest DAU growth/ARPU gains materialize.
Read full article (8 min)