Added to YB: 2025-10-07
Pitch date: 2025-08-19
BLBD [bearish]
Blue Bird Corporation
+10.84%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Market Cap
$1.6B
Pitch Price
$56.48
Price Target
27.00 (-46%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
9.09
P/E
14.67
EV/Sales
1.08
Sector
Machinery
Category
special_situation
Blue Bird Corporation - $BLBD (short)
BLBD short: EV subsidy cliff coming as EPA Clean School Bus (~$1B revenue), CA ZESBI ($500M), NY NYSBIP programs exhaust by FY26. EV units to drop from 900 to 100 by FY27. Non-EV orders down 19% YTD, 0.85x book-to-bill. ESSER funds expired. Insiders selling aggressively. EBITDA to fall 50%+ to $92M (vs $240M consensus) as margins normalize from 14.5% to 8.6%. 53% downside to $27 target at 8x EBITDA.
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